Saturday, February 19, 2011

The future of linux

For years, I've been hearing about Linux, about how good this open-source, free operating system is, and how it might someday overtake Windows as the next desktop operating system. Two years ago, I finally got my hands on a true Linux OS, namely the Ubuntu 9.10, which has been praised for its usability for beginners, and thus may have the potential of 'leading Linux into the mainstream'.
Two years have passed, yet nothing changes. Linux is still only the operating system of choice for (certain) servers, while in the PC market for end users, changes are very slight. Still around 1.6% market share. And for me, I haven't changed my idea toward the usability of Ubuntu, perhaps due to the fact that I am still using old hardware, but I can't help noticing that some people must have mentioned 'low-cost' as a factor for using Linux, right? And that fact stands, until very recently.
Yes, just recently, I got my very first Android cell purchased. Mainly chosen for its flexibility and (especially) its low price, I was initially unsatisfied with the huge number of crapware that comes with it. But once I've rooted it, cleared away all those junk, I found in amazement that it is nearly as powerful as my old laptop, and once I've installed a terminal emulator, busybox, vim and sl4a (which later replaced the terminal), it turned into a nearly fully-functional Linux computer. And that was how I got to appreciate the point of using Linux, finally. Throughout the tweaking, I got to know much of the Linux 'commands', vim, other fundamental differences between Linux and Windows, and its superiority. And so I thought, maybe I should give Ubuntu another try? Don't even think about it. Slow as ever, Ubuntu never lived up to its name for me, even till now.

Just to illustrate the problem, and to show my frustration (you can alway jump this paragraph if you're bored): Ever since I installed the Ubuntu on my computer I've been haunted by numerous problems, starting with a problem with the screen, which won't come back to life should I ever try to close the lid; later to the non-functional suspend, which so annoyingly gets activated every time I close the lid for too long, regardless of the absolutely useless power options until I found the inhibitor widget. Just now, I simply clicked the 'Check' button in the so annoying Update Manager and it never responded: it took a good three minutes to react, and then it CRASHED the WHOLE SYSTEM, just like the suspend function. I might ignore the problem of not having a proper IDE, but this stability problem is just unbearable. Oh, and it really isn't less space hungry than a Windows 7 running the Windows XP MSI.

Now that isn't the point. The point is, Linux has just overtaken Microsoft. Yes, the long anticipated overtaking event has finally happened. What astonishes most people is, however, that it didn't happen in the PC market, the long predicted yet never realistic myth; instead, it succeeded in the hand-held devices market. Strange thing, but lots of things often don't work in the work most people thought it would; instead, it might turn out to be a complete surprise.
The thing is, Linux might never stand a chance in the PC (end user) market, because:

  1. Microsoft products aren't that bad. They're at least usable, and they get to improve
  2. Microsoft has such a big user base that most problems get to be solved with a single search, which definitely doesn't apply to the so-called 'community support' Linux. Nothing can be less helpful than the reply on this site: http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=1538892. As if we get paid to answer Windows problems.
  3. Habit. People are used to the 'Windows way' of doing things, and that can't be changed with reason. The problem worsens with any innovation in the GUI part, Gnome and MSO 2007 are two good examples of that. Though, Windows 7 did succeed for some reason.
  4. Microsoft won't allow it. This is the most crucial. Microsoft is the leader in the PC market, and if it feels pressure from the community, it can always lower its price a bit. Besides, the Windows ecosystem is big, Microsoft created this system not only to earn its sales, but also the sales of 'Windows only' software. They cannot exist without Windows, yet in return, they also support the existence of Windows.
Yet, for whatever reason, Microsoft never actually paid attention to the mobile market, at least properly, until iPhone emerged. Now they have already lost to the other two competitors, as the habit of using a mobile has already been set by iPhone and Android. Good news here is, both iOS and Android runs on top of Linux. And this is where they've overtaken Microsoft. 

Linux might not be the king yet, but it has already dominated quite a big market. All we are going to need is to wait for PCs to become, at long last, obsolete. 
So, spare your efforts. There's no need to create so many 'user-friendly' distros of Linux. Focus on the server platform instead, and make those who prefer to use the console only use the console, those who prefer the GUI, Android.